Have you ever noticed that the most successful teams in sports have the most disciplined coaches? Even individuals, people like Tiger Woods, have coaches to help them but also understand that it is their responsibility to prepare for the event to be undertaken. They have success because they identify their own strengths and position those strengths to take advantage of their opponents’ weaknesses. In the case of the angler the primary opponent is the targeted fish. You and I probably cannot afford to hire our own coaching staff complete with scientists and scouts to increase our probability of fishing success on the water. This means that we’ll have to do it the poor man’s way, on our own.
Head to head it is probably safe to say that we are academically smarter than the fish we are trying to catch. Don’t get carried away though, because the exercise is not in algebra it is in survival. The fish you are after have a great deal more experience in the art of survival than you, Joe Fisherman. That fish does not have a roof, front door, thermostat, grocery store, automobile and all of the other amenities that we take for granted everyday. But maybe it does? and here is where the human head can excel. What would you do if you were a fish and it was cold outside? What would you do if other fish kept coming through your front door? Where is the grocery store and what is for dinner? Are you getting the idea? In the head to head battle Joe Fisherman has to Think Like A Fish!!
How does a fish think? Well, at the very core it is essentially “How can I eat as much as possible without getting eaten myself?” That is a direct quote from a fish that I asked once! If you look closely at the wording of that question you will see that there is a trade-off built into it in the form of “as much as…without getting”. You will never know how much “as much as” could be until you’ve been “gotten”. The fish is constantly evaluating the element of risk to decide whether or not something should be eaten. The evaluation being performed is a function of the environment where the fish presently is and the quality of food represented by the target (your bait). It is not raw mathematics and it is not raw instinct but a combination of the two. A problem with sufficient complexity that it is most readily solved with an organic computer…the human brain!!
What are the Variables?
I present the following formula for consideration:
(WXp+WXc) * (H2Op+H2Oc) * T * HI * G * F = (B+P)
Weather Pattern (WXp)
What has been the weather pattern coming in to the scheduled fishing event? Quantity of precipitation, daily temp ranges, high or low pressure, system transitions, on or off trend are all things to consider.
Weather Current (WXc)
What is the weather supposed to be on the day of the fishing event? Air temps, wind, sky conditions, precipitation, sunrise, sunset.
Water Pattern (H2Op)
What has been the water pattern coming in to the scheduled fishing event? Temps, levels, rates of flow, clarity, on or off trend are all things to consider.
Water Current (H2Oc)
What do you expect the water conditions to be on the day that you fish? Temp, level, rate of flow, clarity.
Time of Day (T)
What time of day to you expect to be fishing? Midday, dawn to late morning, early evening to dusk, dawn to dusk.
Historical Information (HI)
Do you have any historical information that might apply to the situation? Maybe not now, but if we are disciplined, we will collect our first set of measurements this year.
Geography (G)
Have you reviewed a topo map of the area that you are planning to fish? Sometimes these maps can provide pretty decent indicators of where fish are likely to be. Look for topology that is interesting and spend extra time in those areas.
Food Supply (F)
Do you know what kind of groceries are in and around the location that you are planning to fish? If not, then take some time to ask around and try to find out. You’ll want to factor in the most prevalent types of food for the fish that you are after.
Baits and Presentation (B+P)
Everything up to this point is leading to this component. This is what will be determined by solving for each of the other values. Which bait and presentation technique is most likely to induce a fish to take the risk of eating it? There are some obvious choices in any given situation. These choices are what the middle of the pack fishermen are instinctively making. Before launching for the day the Title Contender already has an idea that will produce an edge.
What’s the Payoff?
In theory you should begin to display the ability to out fish the average fisherman. When they are getting skunked you will catch a few. When they think they had a pretty good day you’ll be able to tell them about the 2 20”ers you got. Over time the process will become more refined and produced better and better results.
There is great value writing down your plan and attempting to execute it once you are on the water. This way you won’t forget to switch up after lunch to the tight cover presentations you planned to use once the sun got high in the sky. While you are on the water record your observations, thoughts, and results and feed them back into your model. Intangibles are especially important to record. If you encountered something completely counter-intuitive and unexpected then WRITE IT DOWN!
My pledge to myself this coming year will be to game plan every serious outing that I undertake during the year. If I can actually do it then I will share some results with everyone.